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Total Potential Cost Savings Worldwide
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Estimate of the Total Number of Deaths Worldwide Annually
According to the World Health Organization (WHO):
Total Global Deaths: Approximately 56 million deaths occur worldwide each year.
Identify Deaths from Serious, Life-Limiting Illnesses
a. Global Deaths from Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
Non-Communicable Diseases account for 71% of all deaths globally.
Total NCD Deaths: 56 million × 71% ≈ 40 million deaths annually.
b. Main Categories of NCDs
Cardiovascular Diseases: ~17.9 million deaths
Cancers: ~9.3 million deaths
Chronic Respiratory Diseases: ~4.1 million deaths
Diabetes: ~1.5 million deaths
Others: Includes neurological disorders, kidney diseases, liver diseases, etc.
c. Total Deaths Relevant to EOL Discussions
Estimate: Approximately 40 million deaths annually are due to serious, life-limiting illnesses where EOL discussions are appropriate.
Estimate the Number of Patients Without EOL Discussions
a. Patients Eligible for EOL Discussions
Assumption: Not all deaths from NCDs involve patients who are aware of their prognosis or have the opportunity for EOL discussions.
Estimate: 80% of NCD deaths involve patients who could benefit from EOL discussions.
Calculation: 40 million × 80% = 32 million patients
b. Patients Currently Without EOL Discussions
Based on U.S. Data: In the U.S., 68.8% of patients did not have EOL discussions.
Assumption for Global Estimate: The percentage may be higher globally due to cultural, educational, and healthcare system differences. However, for a conservative estimate, we’ll use 68.8%.
Calculation: 32 million × 68.8% ≈ 22 million patients
Determine the Per-Patient Cost Savings
a. U.S. Per-Patient Cost Savings
From the Study: $1,041 per patient in the U.S.
b. Adjusting for Global Healthcare Spending Differences
U.S. Healthcare Spending per Capita:
Approximately $10,600 per year.
Global Average Healthcare Spending per Capita:
Approximately $1,100 per year (based on World Bank data).
The ratio of Global to U.S. Spending:
$1,100 / $10,600 ≈ 0.104 (about 10%).
Adjusted Global Per-Patient Cost Savings:
$13,916 × 10% ≈ $1,391 per patient
Calculate the Total Potential Cost Savings Worldwide
a. Total Savings Calculation
Total Potential Savings:
$1,391 per patient × 22 million patients ≈ $30.602 billion
b. Rounding
Approximately $31 billion in potential market globally
Zhang, B., Wright, A. A., Huskamp, H. A., et al. (2009). Health care costs in the last week of life: associations with end-of-life conversations. Archives of Internal Medicine, 169(5), 480–488.
